Shadow Open Market Committee

Monetary Policy Indicators
November 15, 2004
  1. Shadow Open Market Committee
    Monetary Policy Indicators
  2. CPI Inflation Measures
    (3 month moving average)
  3. CPI Inflation Measures
    (12 month moving average)
  4. PCE Inflation Rates
    (3 month moving average)
  5. PCE Inflation Rates
    (12 month moving average)
  6. Inflation Measures Annualized Rates of Growth
    (through 9/04)
  7. Federal Reserve's Central Tendency Forecasts
  8. Federal Funds Rate
  9. Interest Rates on Treasury Securities
  10. Monetary Growth Measures
    (3 month moving average)
  11. Monetary Growth Measures
    (12 month moving average)
  12. Monetary Growth Measures
    Annualized Rates of Growth
    (through 9/04)
  13. Monetary Policy Indicators
    The Taylor Rule
  14. Key Assumptions for
    Taylor Rule Calculations
  15. Taylor Rules for the Funds Rate
  16. Potential and Actual GDP
  17. Federal Funds Targets for 2004Q4
    Taylor Rule Calculations
  18. Monetary Policy Indicators
    The McCallum Rule
  19. Key Assumptions for
    McCallum Rule Calculations
  20. McCallum Rules
  21. Base Velocity Growth
    (Quarterly and 4 year moving average)
  22. Nominal GDP Growth
    (Quarterly and 4 quarter moving average)
  23. Real GDP Growth
    (Quarterly and 10 year moving average)
  24. Productivity Growth in the Business Sector
    (One and 10 year moving average)
  25. Monetary Base Growth Targets
    McCallum Rule Calculations
  26. Definition of Monetary Variables
  27. Definition of Price Indexes
  28. Other Variables Used